Saturday, April 28, 2012

Dear Tom Thibodeau

Let me tell you a story. In the not too distant past, there was a storied Chicago franchise, with many promising young players. But they couldn't reach their full potential under their bumbling, overmatched player's coach. So they replaced him with an old-school kinda guy, who was coming off of a successful run of his own, to take the team to the next level. And he did, at first. In fact, he led the team to success they hadn't seen since the glory days, with a long playoff run. However, he was outmanaged and lost to a team full of superstars from Florida before reaching the championship. However heart-wrenching the loss was, we still had high hopes for the team going forward, due in part to the change in culture the coach brought around.

But the coach rode his superstars too hard, and injuries followed. The old school manager didn't believe in things like "rest" and "science", that said you should maybe not play your best players as much as possible all of the time, so they could perform that way in the future as well. The team choked the next year, the superstars were never the same, and the Chicago team hasn't been back to the semi-finals since.

You have probably surmised by now that I'm referring to Dusty Baker. It's hard to remember now, but there was a year when people wore "In Dusty We Trusty" shirts to Wrigley, and were throwing around the "W" and "S" words every year. Then when it was clear the real secret to his success was throwing Prior and Wood out there for 150 pitches a game every 5th day, we started to wise up. Now his name is practically a dirty word in this town.

This is going to happen to you, TT. Unless you start to show some flexibility. Every great coach of the past 25 years (except maybe Belichick) was tough, but open-minded. I mentioned Popovich and Jackson earlier, but I'm thinking also of your Tony Dungys or Joe Torres. You can't push everyone 100% all the time. You have to know when to take your foot off the pedal.

This has been a problem I've harped on for the past two seasons. The Bulls wouldn't have lost this game if CJ had played the final 6 minutes. They wouldn't be the 4 or 5 seed if Jimmy Butler had played about 8-10 of Luol Deng's minutes every game. You have to have more faith in your team. The whole team. One whose depth is a significant strength. But you act like if Derrick isn't on the floor at any given moment, the Bulls are going to morph into the Bobcats and just throw the ball away at random. The Bulls were 18-9 this season without Derrick playing. They were fully capable of finishing off the Sixers without him too.

So you have two options now, TT. You can learn a lesson from this, and start to loosen up going forward. Maybe in the future you'll find the balance, and all this we be forgotten. Or maybe you'll keep spouting off about "managing the game at hand" and "I don't work backwards", and Derrick will be chronically injured his whole career.

And then TT will be synonymous with VDN and Tim Floyd and all the other morons that didn't have what it takes. The choice is yours.

Quick Thoughts on Bulls/Sixers Game 1

-Well...fuck. Is anyone surprised that TT's penchant for playing starters into the ground came back to bite us? I like TT, but before we win a title with him as our coach, he needs to find his inner Popovich. The Doug Collinses and Jerry Sloans are good coaches, but never won titles. Most of the titles in the last 20 years have been won by Popovich and, of course, Phil Jackson, who are known for having a mellow streak along with the intensity. TT needs to learn this skill. Hopefully this is lesson #1.

-Like I said before, though, the Bulls can win this series without Derrick. There might be a few closer games, and I wouldn't predict a sweep anymore, but I'd be shocked if the Bulls don't win this round anyway. After that I'm not so sure, so while this goes without saying, let's hope it isn't serious.

-I feel like what the Bulls needed last year in the playoffs (a job that should have gone to Kurt Thomas), is someone to get in the other teams face when they pull some cheap shit. Thank you, Rip Hamilton. If you shoot like you did today, and bring that attitude a championship team needs, you could live up to your contract yet.

-I love seeing Jo locked in. There's no reason we should see anything besides 100% intense Jo from here on out, which we'll need the rest of the way.

-Man, I hope JL3 can do his thing in the playoffs.

-Kind of the opposite from last year, I think it might be time to start rolling some of TBN's minutes Fredo's way. Korver's a good enough defender to handle Evan Turner, and the offense opened up significantly with him in the game. I kind of want to see more Korver/Rip time in this series. That's a combination we haven't seen a lot of this year, but it's one I think will open up a lot of space for our big men inside.

-The Bulls should be a little embarrassed they gave up 91 points to the 76ers. I don't want to see the Sixers go over 90 the rest of the series, whether Derrick plays or not. Elton Brand had too many open looks off of slow rotations, and Holiday and Lou Williams got too deep on the penetration. Tighten the D up guys.

-Get better soon, Derrick. At least for the sake of me not going off on TT.

Update: TT, trying to spin things:













What???? You were up 12 with 1:10 to play. You could have put in all your assistant coaches. Had them just hold the ball until the 24 second clock was up, then let the Sixers immediately hit a three, and you still would have won the game. This is not a valid excuse. Someone please explain math to TT before the next game.

Friday, April 27, 2012

2012 NBA Playoff Prediction Challenge

Here's how it works. In the comments, post your picks for the winner of every round in the playoffs, along with the number of games you think each will series will go. You get 5 points for a correct pick multiplied by the round number (so 5 for the first round, 10 for the second round, and so on). You get 2 bonus points for getting the right number of games in a series you also picked correctly. So in later rounds you don't need to pick the correct opponent to get the bonus points (i.e., I picked the Bulls over the Celtics in 6, and it ends up being Bulls over Hawks in 6, I would still get 12 points.)

Since we're in a truncated season, and there's such a quick turnaround between the regular season and playoffs, I'll give everyone until the end of the day Sunday to make your picks. So I guess you could wait and see what happens in game 1 of every series first, but don't be a Bosh like that.

Here are my picks:
Bulls over 76ers in 4
The Sixers have been one of the worst teams in the NBA lately, and then Evan Turner decided to run his mouth off saying they want the Bulls? He can backtrack all he wants, he still gave a team that feels constantly disrespected despite having the best record in the NBA bulletin board material. The Bulls could win this series with a starting 5 of JL3, TBN, JFB, White Mamba, and Turkish D, and I'm only being half-facetious here. I would really like to see that series. I bet it would go 7 games.

Heat over Knicks in 5
This series will be entertaining, and I think the Knicks can steal a game, but I think all the Heat's supposed vulnerabilities are going to go away come playoff time, and the Knicks will be overmatched.

Pacers over Magic in 5
The Magic are the only team in the playoffs I'd rather play than the Sixers. Who are the threats you need to worry about? Jameer Nelson and Ryan Anderson? I think I'd rather play the Magic than the Bucks, Nets, Rockets, or Suns.

Celtics over Hawks in 6
The Celtics worry me. They're playing well at just the right time (wrong time from a Bulls fan perspective.) They match up well with the Bulls, and if any of our secondary players don't show up for the series, it could be ugly. But these are second round problems, and we're talking about the first round. The Celtics have enough to handle the Hawks. Josh Smith will help by taking stupid shots. Also, Avery Bradley will shut Joe Johnson down, and Rondo is going to own Jeff Teague.

Spurs over Jazz in 6
I like the Jazz, I think this will be one of the more entertaining series of the first round. This is not the same Spurs team that got exposed by the Grizzlies last year though. They can score with anybody, and almost have an embarrassment of wing riches with Gary Neal and Kawhi Leonard, along with the usual suspects.

Thunder over Mavs in 6
I like Dirk to steal a couple games, but this is not the same Mavs team without Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea. It is, pretty much, the same Thunder team though.

Nuggets over Lakers in 7
The only real upset I have in the first round, I think the Nuggets style is going to be hard for the Lakers to handle. And I really like the George Karl- Mike Brown matchup for the Nuggets. I realize this pick might screw me over in the long run, but I'm making it anyway.

Grizzlies over Clippers in 5
Three words: Vinny. Del. Negro.

I'll break down the 2nd rounds when I actually know them. Here are the rest of my picks, for the record:
Bulls over Celtics in 7
Heat over Pacers in 5
Spurs over Grizzlies in 6
Thunder over Nuggets in 6

Bulls over Heat in 7
Thunder over Spurs in 6

Bulls over Thunder in 7
(Three straight game 7s. I predict a lot of stress in our future. Buckle up.)

Monday, April 16, 2012

Seventh Round Draft Justifications

I apologize again that these are coming so slowly. I wanted to be done by now. Anyways, here are the full results, let's take it away.

Will- Joakim Noah
It's a little easier to critique this one since Noah's had so many lackluster games lately (last night notwithstanding.) He's really got to pick up the intensity as we approach the playoffs here. But I don't want to harp on Noah too much here, as Gomez says, that's bad karma.

Gomez- Jermaine Dye
The 4 most similar players on Baseball Reference for Jermaine are Torii Hunter, someone named Greg Luzinski, Reggie Sanders, and Tim Salmons. I feel like you could get more value here.

Ron- Harold Baines
Like Harold Baines, for example.

Conall- Joe Crede
Did you know Joe Crede only had 4 seasons of more than 100 games played? I forgot he flamed-the-fuck-out so quickly.

BJ- Mark Grace
No stats necessary for this one. Admittedly at this point I was partially motivated by trying to steal Cubs from Tristan, I could never be mad at myself for drafting Grace too high. The man was an institution at 1st for my entire childhood. Rarely flashy, or even athletic, Grace was a perennial borderline all-star and Gold Glove runner-up. His lack of obvious speed didn't keep him from being an outstanding defensive first baseman, and more than his range or assists would show, his consistency and dependability were a perfect building block for an infield. Also gets bonus points for single-handedly keeping the Cubs in the '89 playoffs and then bridging that lonely gap to the 98 team.

Sam- Will Perry
Sam will fill this in later.

Ethan- Aramis Ramirez
Just to be fair, I decided to see who the 4 most similar players were for Aramis, and number 2 was Jermaine Dye. They're still both a hell of a lot better than Joe Crede, though.

Katz- Johnny Red Kerr (coach)
I don't want to tear down Red. But if people want to give me crap for my pick's winning percentage, they should know that Kerr's as a coach was .329.

Tristan- Ed Belfour
So far I've picked a team full of good character guys and consummate professionals. We need some color in this clubhouse, so I'm taking one of the bigger characters in the Chicago sports world in Eddie the Eagle. My team needed a Vezina Trophy Winner and a guy who would try to offer a cop a billion dollar bribe. Good value.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Belated Credit- Bulls-Heat 4/12

So apparently I can just never write Bulls-Heat games up on the day of. At least we won this one, it would have been not fun to write a blame game about last night. But we'll get to the unpleasantness later, let's start with the fun stuff.

Credit:
CJ Watson- 30%
CJ earned every bit of that +38. It's been a little bit rough for CJ as of late, what with JL3 more than occasionally outplaying him with Derrick out, but last night he was great. And I don't think just because Derrick was making him look good by comparison. CJ was taking smart shots and playing strong defense (even on Wade for a few possessions).

There were a lot of good players last night, but CJ gets an extra 10% for having the presence of mind to pump fake and get out of D-Wade's way. I was getting ready to go off on him for making himself unbalanced, but upon further review if CJ shoots right away it would have been thrown into the 5th row.

Taj- 20%
Speaking of "throwing things into the third row", Taj was sensational. He only had 1 block in the box score, but he altered way more shots than that and as usual changed the game when he was in defensively. I firmly believe Taj could be a DPOY candidate if he was averaging more than 20 minutes a game.

My big worry with Taj, although it's a few years off, is that Taj is going to play his way into a contract too big for us to offer him. Boozer and Noah are going to be pulling down 8 figures for the Bulls for the next several years, but if I was playing a pickup game and had my choice of Bulls big men, I'd pick Taj first right now. Again, I know this isn't a concern for today, but I can't help but wonder if it's part of the reason he's averaging 20 minutes per game.

Fredo- 20%
After posts like this one from last year, I didn't think I'd see a Heat-Bulls game where Kyle and Boozer were our two leading scorers. But Kyle is turning it on at the right time from the field right now, dropping 5-6 from downtown, including that Dan Majerle-esque dagger from about 30. More importantly, Korver has been so much improved defensively it's absurd. I used to be stressed out about Fredo's defense when he was on the court. Now he's an improvement over Rip Hamilton, and is almost making TBN expendable against most NBA teams.

Turkish D- 10%
How do you go 0-2 from the field and end up +25? By altering every shot Taj doesn't, and pulling down huge rebounds. I feel like we forget that Turkish was hurt for some of the Heat series, and it's not a little matter. Making Wade and James throw up more difficult shots when they go to the hole all game is going to wear them down over the course of a long playoff series, and it's nice that the Bulls always have at least one above average defensive player on the court at all times, and sometimes two. Three of the four 5-man units that have a defensive rating under .9 (which is pretty darn good) have Asik in for Noah. (All 4, of course, have Gibson)

Boozer- 7%
Don't let the -15 fool you, Boozer is the only reason the game wasn't over by halftime. Smart, open shots, mixed with some aggressive basket-attacking, which is when Boozer is at his best. Boozer was actually in line for a lot more credit, but then he went back to Dr. Jeckyl in the 2nd half and started taking stupid contested fallaways until he was pulled. As Sam says all the time, "towards the basket, Booze!"

Luol Deng- 5%
I suppose I'm shortchanging Lu a little, since he hit some clutch shots and played much improved defense over the Melo torch-job the other day. But we saw some of the bad Deng, too, settling for too many jumpers instead of finding lanes to the basket, especially when LeBron wasn't guarding him. It might, of course be a result of him playing 43 minutes last night, which we'll get to shortly.

TT- 5%
Low? I give credit to TT for sitting Derrick at the end of the game and overtime, and completely rolling with the Bench Mob to win this game. That being said, I think if Derrick doesn't come back in late in the 4th at all, the Bulls win comfortably. He said after the game CJ needed a rest, but I'm calling BS on that since Taj came in at about the same time, and he wasn't getting pulled for Noah until he fouled out in OT. No, the best case scenario for TT was Derrick coming in for the last few minutes and helping the Bulls win, so there's no story about it the next day. Instead it was obvious Derrick was actively hurting the Bulls on both ends, and TT probably held on a possession too long. If the Heat go with the Wade-LeBron-Battier-Bosh-Turiaf 5 in crunch time in the playoffs, I hope TT follows the pattern of this game. On the most important possession of the game for the Heat, the 5 on the floor to defend them was TBN-Deng-JFB-Taj-Asik. That's why I love TT. But if you have that much trust in those guys, why not see them more often?

TBN- 2%
I said Korver was making TBN obsolete against most teams, but not the Heat. Ronnie guards Wade as well as anyone in the NBA, and some of those late shots Wade hit by praying them in, through no fault of Ronnie's. We might not need him more than 12 minutes a game to beat the Knicks and whoever we'll see in round 2 (knock on wood), but we'll need Ronnie against the Heat.

JFB- 1%
JFB was on the court for some of the most key possessions of the game (which I fully support, TT). So why the hell can't he play for 6 minutes in the 2nd quarter and get Deng a little more rest? I really need this explained to me.

No Credit-
Derrick- I'm just going to skip the negative stuff we can talk about here and focus on the positive. Derrick got a lot of love from ESPN today for being a true professional and team player, and being "the first off the bench to congratulate guys" last night. But that's not entirely true. JL3 and Boozer were always the first ones up. Derrick said and did all the right things, and was in the huddle at timeouts and encouraging CJ and whatnot. But you could tell inside he wasn't happy with the game. And I like that about Derrick. I want my alpha dog to be angry when he has a bad game, regardless of the outcome. I want him to take ownership of it. That's the way Derrick's wired, and it's going to help in the long run.

Joakim- I don't know what to say about Jo, though. There have been too many games lately where Jo has been our 4th best big man for my tastes. You can't use the "he's not in shape" excuse anymore, it's mid-April, Jo. I want to see this Joakim back, soon. We need him for the playoffs:

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Opening Day Blame Game: Cubs-Nationals 4/5

So normally I'd continue to ignore the Cubs until they act like they know what they're doing. Which we can obviously see isn't today, as the Cubs decided to lose in the most Cubs way possible. But the fact that this loss was so self-inflicted makes me want to sound off on it.

Jeff Baker- 45%
What the FUCK were you going in the top of the 8th inning? You looked like a beer league softball player. Wouldn't anyone with even a modicum of baseball instinct put their glove down and at least try to make a play on the ball? It looked like he was trying to get out of the way of the ball as it rolled by like he was a base-runner. Anyways, with any normal first baseman with as much range as Prince Fielder, Dempster has a shutout going through 8.

Kerry Wood- 30%
While he should have been out of the inning a couple of times with the ridiculous strike zone, his WHIP is now 81. That's not OK. While I love Kerry Wood, and can't wait to write his justification in a few rounds, it's obvious he can't blow pitches by people for a third strike anymore. Maybe Wood isn't the right choice for set-up man.

Dale Sveum- 15%
Let's make a deal, Sveum. I won't completely dismiss you as another manager underqualified for your job, and you stop calling for your 36 year old outfielder who has had knee injuries in the past to steal frigging 3rd base.

Carlos Marmol- 5%
The double wasn't entirely his fault, but he would have probably given up 2 home runs if the wind hadn't been blowing in.

David DeJesus- 3%
I thought DeJesus was brought in to improve our fielding, and take pitches and improve our on base percentage. Instead he swung at the first pitch a bunch of times, and botched a catchable fly ball in the 9th inning. Not a great start.

Joe Mather- 2%
I don't know who you are, but maybe when you're put in to be the tying run on third base, and the ball is hit hard three feet away from you, you shouldn't charge headfirst into a sure out. There's no way Tony Campana would have done that.

Absolved-
Ryan Dempster- The silver lining of today was how well Dempster pitched. Maybe if he can keep that up the starting pitching won't be a complete disaster.

Marlon Byrd- While we're at it, Sveum, what the hell is our most reliable hitter doing batting 7th? Please fix this, too.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

RW's Justifications: Round 1, Michael Jordan

There is no Chicago athlete more iconic. He is considered by many to be the best athlete of all time. You know the numbers, but it never hurts to see them once in a while. Here is a mere selection of achievements:

6-time NBA Champion
6-time NBA Finals MVP
5-time MVP
11 All-NBA Selections
10 Scoring Titles
9 All Defensive Selections

Two thoughts: He should have had seven MVPs (Barkley and Malone were each gifted one...it's OK, MJ got their rings) And how about those last two numbers? Holy shit. I think I knew each of those independently, but to see them side by side is impressive. Watch this.

Michael Jordan. How much can we say anymore? It's all been said. He is Chicago's most _______ athlete. No, I like that. Chicago's Most Athlete. He's on my team.

RW's Justifications: Justification of Lateness

There is probably no really good reason why I haven't posted any justifications for any of my players. Maybe the rounds that were happening around the time my grandfather died and I went back to Chicago are OK to have missed out on. But even then, none of my players require too much explanation, so I could have hopped online to put together a couple sentences to "convince" you that an individual is indeed bringing something important, or even indispensable to my team.

I haven't even read all that's been posted yet. I probably won't until I've gotten up to date with my posts. But I did read Tristan's fair and balanced thoughts on my Stacey King pick. He posted a fake link to the Stacey King Soundboard, but instead it sent you to his career stats. I sure hope T has placed pitfalls throughout all of his explanations of my selections.

How long did you spend playing on the soundboard?!?!?! It's awesome, isn't it?! I wish there was one about Kwame Brown's small hands... (More to come in the justification on Dr. King's developments into a key piece of the current Bulls' future successes.)

Time to justify!

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Sixth Round Draft Justifications

Sorry for the delay between rounds. Moving and whatnot. Here are the full results.

Tristan- Devin Hester
Not to toot my own horn, but I feel like Devin Hester is an interesting pick. There are certainly players picked later in the draft who contribute more to their teams every game than Hester, who only gets to affect the outcome of games on a small number of plays, sometimes detrimentally. But I can say there is nobody picked after Devin, and very few players picked before, that have provided Chicago with more jump-out-of-your-seat highlights than Hester has. And I don't know if there's anyone else that was picked past the third round who you could make the case is the best player ever at their position. I'm just going to end my Hester argument with this:

You should watch all 10 minutes of that. It's pretty fun.

Katz- BJ Armstrong
I'm pretty sure Katz picked the first person in the draft who was ever left unprotected in an expansion draft. Also, if Stacey gets points for being good on television, then we need to dock BJ points for that. He tried his hand in front of the camera, and it was ugly. I wish I could find a clip of it, but he was awkward and stilted, and didn't last long. He makes a much better agent (which I suppose we can give him points for, but it's not like being Derrick's agent is hard. "My client is awesome and wants to play for you forever. Please give him as much money as possible. Thanks.")

Ethan- Mike Brown
Immediately after typing his name, Mike Brown just went on the Chitown Sports Fantasy Draft Injured List.

Sam- Derrek Lee
The only way I can explain Derrek Lee falling to the 6th round is to attribute it to the lack of die-hard Cubs fans involved in the draft. True, he has never led the Cubs to a World Series (though he was part of the Marlins team that robbed the Cubs of a title chance in 2003), but he is a 3-time gold glover (twice with the Cubs) and also received a silver slugger for his 2005 season (the year he had an insane 28 RBIs the first month of the season). And let us not forget his incredible 2009 when he had an impressive 90 RBIs and led the team to the league's best record. The Cubs did massively fail to impress that post season, dropping three straight to the Dodgers, but Derrek came back the next year resilient, tallying 111 RBIs and batting a .306 average on the season. (Ok, ok...I know they didn't even make the playoffs that year, but really, the Cubs are heartbreaking every year ok? He's still a great player and one of my favorites to ever wear Cubby blue...) He should also be awarded a point or two for finally losing his cool and telling Big Z to shove it in what is remembered as the second dugout altercation of Zambrano's illustrious Cubs career. Derrek would also fit in like a gem with TT's hard work mentality.

Editor's note: My only regret from the entire draft was letting Derrek fall to Sam here. I should have picked him over Ron Harper.

BJ- Fergie Jenkins
What is there not to like about Fergie? Admittedly this pick was based somewhat on reputation, and it's a bit harder now to recall exactly what I was thinking during the draft; the man was a beast. Since I never saw him play, the only real exposure I had to him growing up was listening to Santo talk about him, which he never failed to do when the topic of the best pitchers of that era came up. But here are some stats to chew on: First Canadian Hall of Famer, >3000 K's and <1000 walks, from 1967-72 he had >20 CG every year(in 1971 when he outdueled Seaver for the Cy Young he went the distance in 30 of his 37 starts) and then after he had one down the Cubs traded him for Bill Madlock and he came back in 1974 to throw another 29 CG and win 25 games for the freaking Rangers. Argh ok let's move on I'm getting frustrated.

Conall- Billy Williams
For most of my childhood, I knew Billy Williams as "the other guy who's had his number retired besides Ernie Banks." He was pretty good, I guess, but he's nothing special. Every franchise has a few Billy Williamses. But I suppose we're in the rounds where those guys get drafted. Whatever, congratulations on a boring pick.

Ron- Carlton Fisk
Ron had a great first few rounds, but then spent the next few picks taking players best known for exploits for other cities. Fisk played 10 seasons for the Red Sox and 13 seasons for the White Sox, but went in to the Hall of Fame in a Red Sox hat. And if I told you to name one moment from Pudge's career, you're naming him waving a home run fair at Fenway Park. What White Sox memory do you have?

Gomez- Steve Kerr
Gomez shores up the all-important "players-punched-by-Michael-Jordan" position. Did Danny Ferry ever play for a Chicago team?

Will- Paul Konerko
If I had to rate the speed of every player taken so far, here would be the top 5:
1. Devin Hester
2. Lou Brock
3. Derrick Rose
4. Kenny Lofton
5. Walter Payton

And here would be the bottom 5:
50. Carlton Fisk
51. Joel Quennville
52. Tom Thibodeau
53. George Halas
54. Paul Konerko

But maybe I'm underrating TT a little bit. I bet he can run a decent wind sprint. Maybe replace him with Maddux. Konerko is still last, though.