Would the Bulls Have Beaten Hakeem and the Rockets in the 94 and 95 Finals if Jordan Never Retired?

So around here, when I ask this question, the answer is invariably something along the lines of "Of course, duh, why would you even ask that?"

Here's why. Over the course of the Bulls championship run, they never really had to face an elite center in the finals. The full list:

1991- Vlade Divac (season ppg: 11.2, finals ppg 18.2, mostly against Bill Cartwright, who averaged 32 mpg)
1992- Kevin Duckworth and Cliff Robinson (combined season ppg: 23.1, finals ppg: 20.6, split between Cartwright and Scott Williams)
1993- Mark West and Oliver Miller (combined season ppg: 10.9, finals ppg: 10.7, more Williams than Cartwright. Also, the Suns really liked to put Tom Chambers at the 5 in this series since the Bulls couldn't really make them pay on the defensive end)
1996- Sam Perkins (season ppg: 11.8, finals ppg: 11.2, mostly against Luc Longley. I'm aware either Ervin Johnson or Frank Brickowski started, but Sam averaged about 30 minutes a game at the 5.)
1997- The three-headed monster of Greg Ostertag, Antoine Carr, and Greg Foster (combined season ppg: 18.2, finals ppg: 12.8, although Foster memorably dropped 17 in game 3.)
1998- The three above plus Adam Keefe (season ppg: 23.9, finals ppg: 9.6, although both teams basically played without a center for quarters at a time in this series. The Jazz had a lot of Stockton-Hornacek-Russell-Chris Morris/Shandon Anderson-Malone looks, against the Bulls' Ron Harper/Steve Kerr, Jordan, Pippen, Kukoc, Rodman.)

So in most cases, the data shows opposing centers scored less than they averaged in the regular season, but on the other hand, that ain't exactly a murderer's row of centers up there. Total All-Star Games? 4 (Duckworth '89 and '91, Robinson '94, and Divac '01, which barely counts since it's 10 years after the finals in question.) So the conclusion I'm jumping to, which should be backed up by anyone who watched those series, is that the center position was largely irrelevant (Divac dropped 24 in game 3 of '91, and that's the only time a center scored 20 points in any of those games.)

Enter Hakeem. Hakeem dominated the finals in 94 and 95, never scoring under 20 points in any of the 11 games. By game, he scored 28, 25, 21, 32, 27, 30, 25, 31, 34, 31, 35. The first 7 against Patrick Ewing, the last 4 against Shaquille O'Neal, who were both excellent post defenders at the time. What would he have done to Bill Wennington (played the most minutes at center for the 93-94 Bulls) and Will Perdue (most minutes in 95)?

Of course, the counter-argument was made most succinctly by my friend Ben Saper the other night: "Well...we had Jordan."

An excellent point. I'm not going to wax poetic about MJ right now, there's plenty of time for that later. But while imagining what one of the most best centers of all time would have done to our pasty-white centers is fair, it's also fair to imagine what the most competitive player ever would have done with Vernon Maxwell and an aging Clyde Drexler.

I decided to use whatifsports.com. I used the 93-94 Bulls with 92-93 MJ in Pete Myers' place (I'm sure with MJ that year the Bulls would look entirely different roster-wise, but I'm not trying to figure out exactly how all the dominoes would fall.) and simulated a 7 game series. Whatifsports uses statistical analysis to figure out what would happen, so if you're one of those Joe Morgan types who doesn't trust machines, you might quibble with the results. Here's what I got, however.

Game 1: Rockets 103, Bulls 100. The Bulls hold Hakeem to a pedestrian 22 points, but the Rockets get a total team effort, with every starter in double figures (which wasn't unusual for them, they very nearly averaged that in the regular season, with Horry's 9.9 being the only exception.) Jordan drops 26, but Pippen has an off night with 12 points on 5-12 from the field, and 2-6 from behind the arc. Curious stat of the game here, Jordan and Pippen only play 37 minutes, BJ Armstrong led the way with 45. 93-94 theoretical Phil Jackson is kind of a moron.

Game 2: Bulls 98, Rockets 88. Scottie bounces back with a nice 20pts/14 rebs/5 steals(!) line. Jordan puts in 26, Grant and Armstrong chip in 13 and 12 respectively. Hakeem puts in 22 again, but doesn't get the help from his supporting cast as he did in Game 1 (17 for Maxwell, and 11 for Kenny Smith. Nothing else to speak of.) BJ plays 46 minutes again. Jeez, theoretical Phil, give Steve Kerr some minutes.

Game 3: Bulls 107, Rockets 95. OK, Phil, I stand corrected. BJ drops 22 on 3-4 from downtown and 5-6 from the line. MJ scores 23 (I don't think What if sports takes "absolutely taking over big games" into consideration when they come up with the stats.) Scottie with 19, Horace 16. Hakeem has 20, but the Bulls then do a good job shutting everyone else down. Apparently theoretical Phil knows something real Phil didn't and Bill Wennington only plays 2 minutes, with Cartwright and Longley splitting most of the minutes at center. (Also: Stacey King gets a minute off the bench! But doesn't record any meaningful stats.)

Game 4: Bulls 111, Rockets 91. There we go. 30 for MJ, BJ with 21 (I don't remember 93-94 BJ Armstrong being the dominant force he is in this series, but I think we're kind of cheating a little with having his 93-94 stats in here. His usage rate of 19.8% was the highest of his career, which I'm sure had no small part to do with MJ not being there.) Hakeem scores 22 again on 10-22 from the field. He only gets to the line 3 times, and he's been getting to the line a lot less in this series than he did during the year. Cartwright and Longley are apparently doing an excellent job playing straight up D without fouling him. (Stacey King watch: 1 minute, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 points. Come on Phil, you won by 20, give Stacey some garbage time minutes.)

Game 5: Rockets 118, Bulls 110. Facing elimination, Hakeem finally takes over. The Dream drops 42 on 13-23 from the field, and 16-18(!) from the line (apparently I jinxed our center combo in the Game 4 recap.) The Rockets hold MJ to 19 on 9-20 from the field. Scottie drops 32 in the losing effort, although Grant shoots them out of the game with a 4-13 effort. (No Stacey King action in Game 5). The series goes back to Chicago Stadium for Game 6.

Game 6: Bulls 109, Rockets 102. The Bulls were down 13 after 3 quarters, then had a 4th for the ages (or at least very-92 like.) Maybe I gave whatifsports too little credit, as MJ has 35, 17 in the 4th quarter. Scottie has 12pts/14 boards (and is the Bulls leading rebounder in the series.) Steve Kerr finally gets a little action and drops 10. Hakeem has 31, but the Bulls once again focus on shutting down everyone else, and only Kenny Smith and Mario Elie score in double figures besides Olajuwon for the Rockets. Stacey King gets no love in Game 6. MJ wins his 4th consecutive Finals MVP, with 26.5 ppg in the series.

Hakeem averages 26.5 as well, both of them scoring 159 total. It came down to the supporting cast, and those Bulls were as deep as any. A little disappointingly, only Game 1 was close, but the series itself plays out in a very familiar fashion, with the Bulls toying with their opponents before closing out Game 6.

So I guess Bulls fans were robbed of an 8-peat. Hopefully Derrick Rose and company can find a way to make up for those 2 championships in the future.