I find it fun to both make predictions and make fun of other people's predictions, so that's what we're going to do today. ESPN likes to have their experts (and Chris Broussard) make predictions on the end of season awards, so I'm going to add my predictions to the mix, as well as take the worst prediction from each section and break it down.
MVP
My pick: LeBron James
It's so hard to repeat as MVP, and Derrick is going to suffer from the curse of high expectations this year. I expect the Heat to hum along during the regular season this year, and LeBron to put up pretty gaudy numbers. And he can have that, I'll still take Derrick in the playoffs.
Worst pick: Chris Paul
No one really went out on a limb here, and Chris Paul could very well win the MVP if the Clippers turn the corner and get one of the top 4 seeds in the west, and voters credit the move for CP3 as the reason. But I think if it happens, it will be more because Blake Griffin becomes one of the top 5 big men in the NBA, not because of Paul.
Rookie of the Year
My pick: Derrick Williams
I think the Timberwolves are going to overachieve, and I think Williams will be a big reason why. Kyrie Irving will put up similar numbers, but it's just because there are no other options in Cleveland.
Worst pick: Jimmer Fredette
I like Jimmer. I think he's going to be a good NBA player. But it's going to take a little time before he's averaging more than 15 ppg (unless everything falls apart in Sacramento and he has to be the whole offense.)
Coach of the Year
My pick: Frank Vogel
I think the Pacers are going to be good this year, and I think Vogel is going to be a big reason why. The Pacers last year played better than the sum of their parts, and now those parts are better. (I can't pick TT for the same reason I can't pick Derrick, the Bulls are supposed to be the top team in the East now.)
Worst pick: Vinny Del Negro
Broussard shows he's never actually seen an NBA game (or at least one VDN has coached.) Just wait until the first close Clippers game, when the final play is just CP3 dribbling around while Blake and Caron Butler stand around watching. If the Clippers don't improve, my prediction is it'll be because they've completely tuned VDN out.
Defensive POY
My pick: Tyson Chandler
It's too easy to pick Dwight Howard, I'm going with Chandler because I think New York will be markedly improved defensively because Chandler is protecting the rim. He was exactly what the Knicks needed.
Worst pick: Tony Allen
Tony Allen doesn't lock down wings any better than Luol Deng does, he's just more self-aggrandizing about it. I hate Tony Allen.
Sixth Man
My pick: James Harden
Harden is going to thrive even more than before playing alongside Durant and Westbrook. I think he'll end up averaging 20 ppg this year.
Worst pick: Mo Williams
Chauncey Billups somehow led the Clippers in minutes on Christmas, despite the fact that MO WILLIAMS IS BETTER. This pick isn't because Williams isn't good, it's because VDN is too stupid to play Williams enough to get this award.
Most Improved
My pick: Eric Gordon
I realize I trashed Gordon on draft night a few years ago, but I admit I was wrong. Eric Gordon is going to come into his own this year being the main option in New Orleans.
Worst pick: Carlos Boozer
Ummm...Scoop Jackson? No.
Eastern Conference:
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. New York
4. Indiana
5. Boston
6. Atlanta
7. Orlando
8. Milwaukee
9. New Jersey
10. Philadelphia
11. Charlotte
12. Detroit
13. Washington
14. Cleveland
15. Toronto
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City
2. San Antonio
3. Memphis
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Dallas
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Portland
8. Golden State
9. Denver
10. New Orleans
11. Minnesota
12. Pheonix
13. Houston
14. Sacramento
15. Utah
Showing posts with label VDN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VDN. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Saturday, December 18, 2010
The Blame Game: Bulls-Clippers
So when I said before that I wasn't too worried about not having Noah for a few months, I was working off the assumption that we'd have Taj in his place. No Taj or Noah means, unfortunately, we are not very good defensively inside, and the Clippers took advantage of that (despite Baron Davis' best efforts.) However, that doesn't mean we could have won this game, but for...
Kurt Thomas/TT for playing Kurt Thomas 16 minutes, and the clutch minutes in the 4th)- 45%
Yes, Kurt Thomas did some good things. He set a few solid screens, drew a nice charge on Blake Griffin, got another foul on a pump fake under the basket. But I thought we got Kurt Thomas to play defense and get rebounds. 3 rebounds in 16 minutes is guard numbers, and it wasn't like it was Blake Griffin beasting him, which would be understandable. There was a key play in the 4th where Eric Gordon got position on Thomas and put the ball back up on him.
Defensively it wasn't much better. He played 6 feet off Griffin out of necessity, but still wasn't quick enough to help stop Baron Davis on the drive. The on-ball defense wasn't much better. My question for TT is, if Kurt isn't going to do anything on the defensive end, why not play Scalabrine and at least open the post up for Boozer? Or go small with James Johnson and push the pace? (OK, Griffin probably would have made the Bulls pay for putting JJ or Luol on him, but still, it would have been better than what happened.)
TT's ability to manage the clock/timeouts- 20%
30 seconds left, down 2. If you don't foul, they can use the entire shot clock get a shot up at the end, by the time you have the rebound, you need to go down the floor for a final shot in 4 or 5 seconds. And that's assuming they don't make the shot or get an offensive rebound, which both basically end the game. If you foul, worst case you're down 4, but have the ball with 27-28 seconds, and can look for a 3 or and-1 to try to make it a 1 possession game next time you foul.
Of course, if you have a timeout, you can count on getting a rebound and calling a timeout, moving the ball up to halfcourt and drawing up a play. But you don't have timeouts left at the end of the game when you use them all with 2-4 minutes left to draw up fadeaway 3s for a guy that's 1-4 and hasn't shot since the 2nd quarter. For the love of god, save timeouts for the end of the game, TT.
Omer Asik-10%
We also aren't going to survive without Noah if Asik doesn't play better than that. 3 points, 6 rebounds won't cut it in 22 minutes. Come on, Asik, at least play well enough to make yourself a decent trade chip.
Kyle Korver- 10%
Hit open shots, Korver. That's pretty much your only job.
CJ Watson- 5%
I need to stop doing this, but I analyzed CJ's plus/minus in an email instead of on the blog this week. I can't find a website with CJ's +/- broken down by game, but I bet there's a high correlation between the Bulls winning "CJ time" (the time Derrick's out and CJ is in at the point) and winning the game. CJ was -11 tonight.
Keith Bogans- 5%
Asik's line was bad, but Bogans' was worse. 0 points, 1 rebound in 14 minutes. And again, I didn't see the defense making up for it. But there somehow aren't any minutes for JJ...
The "wait-for-Derrick-to-bail-us-out" mentality- 5%
Something you notice about great teams: they aren't afraid to have role players take key shots (Robert Horry, Derek Fisher, etc.) The Bulls still sometimes pull open shots down to pass back to Derrick (Boozer does this at about the 2 minute mark, then Derrick misses a tough running shot with his left. Boozer had an open 12-footer he'd been hitting all game.)
Absolved:
Derrick Rose- Would have been nice to have that 2nd free throw, but Derrick shouldn't have to bail out the Bulls every time they try to blow one at the end.
Luol Deng- Missed some key shots, but again, good offense and solid defense (although Ryan Gomes/Rasual Bulter is not the toughest matchup for Deng this year.)
Carlos Boozer- 25 on 12-20 from the field. Maybe we should have run some plays for him in the 4th quarter?
Baron Davis- Some of those plays at the end of the game were ridiculous. Donald Sterling is a despicable human being, but if I was Davis' owner I would heckle him, too.
Vent in the comments. And remember the Bulls-Wizards liveblog is Wednesday night.
Kurt Thomas/TT for playing Kurt Thomas 16 minutes, and the clutch minutes in the 4th)- 45%
Yes, Kurt Thomas did some good things. He set a few solid screens, drew a nice charge on Blake Griffin, got another foul on a pump fake under the basket. But I thought we got Kurt Thomas to play defense and get rebounds. 3 rebounds in 16 minutes is guard numbers, and it wasn't like it was Blake Griffin beasting him, which would be understandable. There was a key play in the 4th where Eric Gordon got position on Thomas and put the ball back up on him.
Defensively it wasn't much better. He played 6 feet off Griffin out of necessity, but still wasn't quick enough to help stop Baron Davis on the drive. The on-ball defense wasn't much better. My question for TT is, if Kurt isn't going to do anything on the defensive end, why not play Scalabrine and at least open the post up for Boozer? Or go small with James Johnson and push the pace? (OK, Griffin probably would have made the Bulls pay for putting JJ or Luol on him, but still, it would have been better than what happened.)
TT's ability to manage the clock/timeouts- 20%
30 seconds left, down 2. If you don't foul, they can use the entire shot clock get a shot up at the end, by the time you have the rebound, you need to go down the floor for a final shot in 4 or 5 seconds. And that's assuming they don't make the shot or get an offensive rebound, which both basically end the game. If you foul, worst case you're down 4, but have the ball with 27-28 seconds, and can look for a 3 or and-1 to try to make it a 1 possession game next time you foul.
Of course, if you have a timeout, you can count on getting a rebound and calling a timeout, moving the ball up to halfcourt and drawing up a play. But you don't have timeouts left at the end of the game when you use them all with 2-4 minutes left to draw up fadeaway 3s for a guy that's 1-4 and hasn't shot since the 2nd quarter. For the love of god, save timeouts for the end of the game, TT.
Omer Asik-10%
We also aren't going to survive without Noah if Asik doesn't play better than that. 3 points, 6 rebounds won't cut it in 22 minutes. Come on, Asik, at least play well enough to make yourself a decent trade chip.
Kyle Korver- 10%
Hit open shots, Korver. That's pretty much your only job.
CJ Watson- 5%
I need to stop doing this, but I analyzed CJ's plus/minus in an email instead of on the blog this week. I can't find a website with CJ's +/- broken down by game, but I bet there's a high correlation between the Bulls winning "CJ time" (the time Derrick's out and CJ is in at the point) and winning the game. CJ was -11 tonight.
Keith Bogans- 5%
Asik's line was bad, but Bogans' was worse. 0 points, 1 rebound in 14 minutes. And again, I didn't see the defense making up for it. But there somehow aren't any minutes for JJ...
The "wait-for-Derrick-to-bail-us-out" mentality- 5%
Something you notice about great teams: they aren't afraid to have role players take key shots (Robert Horry, Derek Fisher, etc.) The Bulls still sometimes pull open shots down to pass back to Derrick (Boozer does this at about the 2 minute mark, then Derrick misses a tough running shot with his left. Boozer had an open 12-footer he'd been hitting all game.)
Absolved:
Derrick Rose- Would have been nice to have that 2nd free throw, but Derrick shouldn't have to bail out the Bulls every time they try to blow one at the end.
Luol Deng- Missed some key shots, but again, good offense and solid defense (although Ryan Gomes/Rasual Bulter is not the toughest matchup for Deng this year.)
Carlos Boozer- 25 on 12-20 from the field. Maybe we should have run some plays for him in the 4th quarter?
Baron Davis- Some of those plays at the end of the game were ridiculous. Donald Sterling is a despicable human being, but if I was Davis' owner I would heckle him, too.
Vent in the comments. And remember the Bulls-Wizards liveblog is Wednesday night.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Credit Where Credit is Due- Bulls/Suns
I introduced "The Blame Game" in the beginning of this blog's life, where we assign percentage values to everyone responsible party in a game. Credit Where Credit is Due is the flipside to that, where we assign percentage values to the heroes in important games (or in this case, "character-building, season defining wins"). The envelope please:
Derrick Rose- 25%
I love that Derrick took 33 shots, and I don't even mind that some of them were forced. I know I would be killing Ben Gordon if he had the same stat line at the end of the night (14-33 from the field, 1-5 from downtown) but the difference is many of the shots Derrick missed were good shots, where he got some separation or at least was in position to draw a foul. Ben would have drawn the same line by taking bad fall away threes over two defenders. It also doesn't feel like everyone else is taken out of the game when Derrick goes into takeover mode, but that might be a testament to the next name on the list.
Tom Thibodeau- 25%
I texted a few buddies when TT was drawing up the last play in the 2nd OT with "Derrick to the rack. Book it." Everyone in the building thought that play was a high pick and roll with Rose and Noah, which is why it worked so well. That was the kind of play VDN never had the creativity to come up with nor the guts to call. I've heard in the past that the only time an NBA head coach really has a direct effect on the game is coming out of a timeout. With VDN, 9 times out of 10 the play was " dribbles around for a little bit and jacks up a shot." Now we have a coach who calls real plays! It's very refreshing.
Joakim Noah- 20%
Maybe it's unfair, but from Joakim I've come to expect at least two great hustle plays in a close game, plus for him to get every rebound in sight. Noah gets extra credit for treating Nash like his personal ATM every time he switched on to him, and for both great passes in OT (the back-cut to Rose and the feed for Korver cutting to the basket). I love that Noah can do all these unique things most big men can't, I love that I'm never more confident in our defense and rebounding than when Noah is in the game, and I love that I'm going to Joakim Noah bobblehead night next Wednesday.
Ronnie Brewer- 10%
If you just look at the stats, you'll wonder why Brewer is getting so much credit. His final line is 1-2 for 3 points, 5 rebounds, and a -17 on the night. But the +/- is so low because he was on the court for a lot of the first quarter, but that mess wasn't really his fault, and he played amazing defense on Grant Hill and Jason Richardson in the overtimes, forcing them to take bad, contested shots. And I thought Bogans was supposed to be the defensive stopper.
James Johnson- 5%
I got a text from my buddy Smitty during the game suggesting JJ is Tyrus Thomas 2.0. I want to give him until the end a season where he has actual coaching and doesn't have him minutes jerked around (although TT has already done a little of that, and probably will see even more of it when Boozer is healthy.) But I think JJ's immaturity can be fixed. If not, the nice thing is we're deep enough for it not to be too big of a deal. Until then we'll see a lot of sequences like the end of regulation where he hits a huge 3 to cut the lead to 1, then bails Nash out with a dumb foul on the other end.
Luol Deng- 5%
I know, I know, he dropped 27, he deserves more credit, I'm a Deng hater, whatever. At the end of close game you can't miss open layups and let Hedo freaking' Turkoglu get rebounds over you.
Grant Hill- 5%
I don't fault Hill for getting beat on the back-cut by Rose. But a lot of open looks were created throughout the game by taking Hill to his left or running around screens. Hill can't keep up anymore, and the Suns are going to have a hard time being competitive this year if they need to rely on Hill as their wing defensive specialist.
Kyle Korver- 3%
I'll give Korver a little credit for hitting some shots to help bring us back in the 4th, but my god did he suck in the overtimes, and was a huge defensive liability. Any open look the Suns got was when Korver wasn't quick enough to help and recover. I know you need him on the court to spread the floor for Rose on offense, but then he needs to make his open looks.
And that shot he took on the play Derrick fouled out on was moronic. Even had it went in, it's better to run 24 seconds off the clock than take that shot. Be aware of the game situation, Korver.
Jason Richardson- 2%
Thanks for missing your second free throw and keeping the window open!
There you go, feel free to dispute my grading in the comments.
Derrick Rose- 25%
I love that Derrick took 33 shots, and I don't even mind that some of them were forced. I know I would be killing Ben Gordon if he had the same stat line at the end of the night (14-33 from the field, 1-5 from downtown) but the difference is many of the shots Derrick missed were good shots, where he got some separation or at least was in position to draw a foul. Ben would have drawn the same line by taking bad fall away threes over two defenders. It also doesn't feel like everyone else is taken out of the game when Derrick goes into takeover mode, but that might be a testament to the next name on the list.
Tom Thibodeau- 25%
I texted a few buddies when TT was drawing up the last play in the 2nd OT with "Derrick to the rack. Book it." Everyone in the building thought that play was a high pick and roll with Rose and Noah, which is why it worked so well. That was the kind of play VDN never had the creativity to come up with nor the guts to call. I've heard in the past that the only time an NBA head coach really has a direct effect on the game is coming out of a timeout. With VDN, 9 times out of 10 the play was "
Joakim Noah- 20%
Maybe it's unfair, but from Joakim I've come to expect at least two great hustle plays in a close game, plus for him to get every rebound in sight. Noah gets extra credit for treating Nash like his personal ATM every time he switched on to him, and for both great passes in OT (the back-cut to Rose and the feed for Korver cutting to the basket). I love that Noah can do all these unique things most big men can't, I love that I'm never more confident in our defense and rebounding than when Noah is in the game, and I love that I'm going to Joakim Noah bobblehead night next Wednesday.
Ronnie Brewer- 10%
If you just look at the stats, you'll wonder why Brewer is getting so much credit. His final line is 1-2 for 3 points, 5 rebounds, and a -17 on the night. But the +/- is so low because he was on the court for a lot of the first quarter, but that mess wasn't really his fault, and he played amazing defense on Grant Hill and Jason Richardson in the overtimes, forcing them to take bad, contested shots. And I thought Bogans was supposed to be the defensive stopper.
James Johnson- 5%
I got a text from my buddy Smitty during the game suggesting JJ is Tyrus Thomas 2.0. I want to give him until the end a season where he has actual coaching and doesn't have him minutes jerked around (although TT has already done a little of that, and probably will see even more of it when Boozer is healthy.) But I think JJ's immaturity can be fixed. If not, the nice thing is we're deep enough for it not to be too big of a deal. Until then we'll see a lot of sequences like the end of regulation where he hits a huge 3 to cut the lead to 1, then bails Nash out with a dumb foul on the other end.
Luol Deng- 5%
I know, I know, he dropped 27, he deserves more credit, I'm a Deng hater, whatever. At the end of close game you can't miss open layups and let Hedo freaking' Turkoglu get rebounds over you.
Grant Hill- 5%
I don't fault Hill for getting beat on the back-cut by Rose. But a lot of open looks were created throughout the game by taking Hill to his left or running around screens. Hill can't keep up anymore, and the Suns are going to have a hard time being competitive this year if they need to rely on Hill as their wing defensive specialist.
Kyle Korver- 3%
I'll give Korver a little credit for hitting some shots to help bring us back in the 4th, but my god did he suck in the overtimes, and was a huge defensive liability. Any open look the Suns got was when Korver wasn't quick enough to help and recover. I know you need him on the court to spread the floor for Rose on offense, but then he needs to make his open looks.
And that shot he took on the play Derrick fouled out on was moronic. Even had it went in, it's better to run 24 seconds off the clock than take that shot. Be aware of the game situation, Korver.
Jason Richardson- 2%
Thanks for missing your second free throw and keeping the window open!
There you go, feel free to dispute my grading in the comments.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Why I Won't be Mad if Ben Isn't on the Bulls Next Year
7 for fucking 23. 2 stupid ass shots in the last 2 minutes where all he had to do was pull the ball out and get a decent look. He must be the least efficient offensive player on the Bulls this year (I'm in no mood to look that up and be contradicted, maybe I'll look it up later.) And to top it all off, he was mostly assigned to guard House and Scalabrine when they were in the game, and they lit him up. I'm not doing the blame game tonight, because I don't have the time or emotional energy for it, but there would be a VERY large amount assigned to Ben (and a little to Vinny for not doing anything about it.
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